The Standard Chartered Bank has anticipated the approval of spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund in May 2024 in its latest report on Tuesday. Following the regulatory nod, the bank expects a bullish run for Ethereum, anticipating a potential surge of 70% from its current price, reaching $4000 by May.
Expected Approval By May
Standard Chartered’s research team, led by renowned analyst Geoff Kendrick, predicts that Ethereum will mirror Bitcoin’s trajectory. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission will likely delay decisions on spot Ethereum ETF approval by initially rejecting the issuer and eventually approving it.
The date for this delayed approval of spot ETH ETF is tentatively set for May 23. The bank, however, contends that the market currently needs to be more accurate in the likelihood of approval.
Quoting from the report itself in a portion subheaded as ‘History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes,’ Geoff Kendrick, the head of SCB Research Team, writes,
“pending applications for ETH U.S. spot ETFs to be approved on May 23, the final deadline for the first of the ETFs under consideration — the equivalent date to Jan. 10 for BTC ETFs. If ETH prices perform similarly to BTC prices in the lead-up to BTC ETF approval, ETH could trade as high as $4,000 by then.”
Highlighting that there’s “no fundamental reason” for the SEC to treat ETH differently than Bitcoin, the report emphasizes that ETH futures are already listed on the regulated Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).
On the other hand, a couple of days back, investment bank TD Cowen’s Washington Research Group suggested that the delay in approving spot Ethereum ETFs is more of a political pressure on SEC Chair Gary Gensler. TD Cowen predicted that spot Ethereum ETFs will likely be approved by 2025-2026, and least likely this year. As the U.S. Elections are approaching in November 2024, Gensler is expected to delay the approval and be more cautious.
Standard Chartered expects ETH prices to closely track or potentially outperform Bitcoin as the approval date approaches, drawing parallels to Bitcoin’s surge of 85% following ETF approval.
The report suggests that ETH might face less selling pressure post-ETF approval compared to Bitcoin. This is attributed to the Grayscale Ethereum Fund (ETHE) having a smaller market share of Ether’s capitalization than the Grayscale Bitcoin Fund (GBTC), with fewer shares held by the FTX bankruptcy estate.
Wrapping up, it’s visible that anticipations of the date of Ethereum spot ETF approval are all over the market. However, the market anticipations also echo the confidence that Ethereum ETFs will be approved, no matter when.