QCP, a leading trading desk, predicted Bitcoin (BTC) would rise to $74,000. Interestingly, Bitcoin rose 7.54% in 24 hours to $65K after the CPI data release, prompting this bullish forecast. This shows a strong institutional support call for BTC. The times are changing!
Breakout Triggered by CPI Numbers
In a Telegram broadcast, QCP noted that the recent U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers have triggered a breakout in risk assets, including Bitcoin, which has climbed above $66,000. This rebound is followed by increasing buying activity, with significant purchases of BTC call options for December 2024. These calls, amounting to 100,000-120,000 BTC, reflect strong expectations for a continued upward movement in Bitcoin’s spot price.
More importantly, institutional demand for Bitcoin is rising. Major asset managers like Millenium and Schonfeld have invested 3% and 2% of their AUM in Bitcoin spot ETFs. This institutional investment shows Bitcoin’s potential as an asset class.
Moreover, QCP highlights several factors aligning to support this bullish breakout. These include significant sovereign and institutional adoption, easing inflation, and the upcoming U.S. elections. The mix of these factors raises the possibility of a resumption of the bull market for Bitcoin.
Given this optimistic scenario, QCP has proposed trade ideas to capitalize on the anticipated upward movement. One such strategy is using bullish ERKO Seagulls, which allow traders to capture upside potential at zero cost.
They have outlined two specific seagull strategies:
June Seagull Strategy
The June Seagull strategy expires on June 27, 2024. Selling a 60k Put and purchasing a 70k Call with an 88k Knock-out level costs nothing. If Bitcoin’s price approaches but doesn’t surpass $88,000 by expiration, the maximum payout is $18,000 per BTC or 249% annually. The potential risk is that the USD invested converts to BTC at $60,000 if Bitcoin falls below $60,000.
August Seagull Strategy
The August Seagull strategy, expiring on August 30, 2024, consists of selling a 58k Put and buying a 70k Call with a 100k Knock-out level at zero cost. The maximum payout is $30,000 per BTC or 176% per annum if Bitcoin’s price nears but does not exceed $100,000 at expiry. However, if the BTC price drops below $58,000, then the downside risk will be to convert the invested USD to BTC at the $58,000 price.
In short, QCP’s Seagull strategies offer high potential payouts at zero cost if Bitcoin prices rise, but they carry the risk of converting invested funds to Bitcoin if prices fall below certain levels.