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Free Money? Polymarket Bet Pays 8.7% if China Doesn’t Invade Taiwan

A contract asking users to bet on the outcome of the 2024 Presidential election—which has over $110.8 million staked, easily a record for crypto-based prediction markets—saw “yes” shares for Biden winning rise 1 cent, to 45 cents, and “yes” shares for Trump dip by a penny to 45 cents. A share pays out $1 if the prediction turns out correct, so the market is signaling each candidate now has a 45% chance of winning.

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