After reaching an all-time high of $73,830 in March, Bitcoin’s price has settled between $66,000 and $70,000. Despite some ups and downs, billionaire investor Chamath Palihapitiya predicts that Bitcoin (BTC) could hit over $500,000 per coin by October 2025.
Palihapitiya’s prediction is based on historical trends and the effects of Bitcoin halvings. He points out that Bitcoin prices usually see significant increases 12 to 18 months after a halving event. Well, let’s see how realistic is it.
BTC Could Reach $500k
In a recent conversation on the All In Podcast, Chamath Palihapitiya discussed the historical impact of Bitcoin’s halving events, which occur roughly every four years. He explained that after each halving, Bitcoin usually undergoes an initial correction period, followed by a significant price surge within 6 to 18 months.
For example, 18 months after the first halving, Bitcoin’s price increased 45x. After the second halving, it jumped almost 28x, and the third halving saw an 8x increase. Palihapitiya suggests that if Bitcoin follows a similar pattern in the next cycle, it could reach $500,000 by 2025.
Meanwhile, the bold prediction suggests that the current price trends indicate that while immediate post-halving gains may be minimal, the long-term outlook is highly bullish.
Impact of Bitcoin ETFs
Additionally, with the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs in major financial markets, significant inflows have been observed. BlackRock’s IBIT ETF attracted $169.1 million, while Grayscale’s GBTC ETF experienced an outflow of $124.3 million. This trend suggests growing institutional interest in Bitcoin, potentially increasing its price.
Cautious Approach
While Palihapitiya’s prediction of $500,000 per Bitcoin is based on historical averages, he acknowledges the possibility of diminishing returns. As Bitcoin grows larger, it requires more capital to achieve the same percentage increases. A more conservative estimate would be a 2x to 3x increase from the current price, which would still signify substantial gains.
As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $68,988, up 1.3% in the past 24 hours, with a market cap exceeding $1.35 trillion. This recent surge is partly attributed to the positive news of Australia’s Monochrome Bitcoin ETF, which will start trading today, reflecting the global momentum behind Bitcoin ETFs.
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