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Prediction Markets and Polls Both Got the French Election Wrong

“The ‘Liste des nuances’ includes both individual parties and coalitions, which supports the interpretation that the official French election results do not strictly differentiate between the two types of entities,” wrote bettor kipakipa, who had a “no” bet on the National Rally winning the most seats. “This is important for resolving the market because it suggests that official results treat coalitions as significant and comparable entities alongside individual parties.”

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